are-evs-overpriced-a-look-at-p-e-ratios-of-leading-ev-companies

2020 may be forever remembered for the Covid 19 pandemic.  But for investors, it will also be remembered as the year one asset delivered draw-dropping returns. No, we’re not talking about Bitcoin.  This year electric vehicles began to climb and then kept climbing. Let’s first look at the price growth of some of the leading EV producers.

Tesla, the most well-known electric vehicle company started the year at $83. It now sits at around $411! Considered the Tesla of China, Nio started the year at $3.72. It is now a whopping $48.30.  That’s a 12X growth in less than a year.

EVs are on a Tear

With this jaw dropping growth, EVs must be overvalued.  Let’s look at the P/E ratio of each to ascertain how much EV stock prices are detached from their fundamentals. P/E refers to a company’s share price divided by its earnings per share over the last 12 months. Typically, a P/E ratio for a stock hovers around 15.  Toyota, the largest car producer in the world has a P/E ratio of 14.57. On the other hand, Tesla has a P/E ratio of 967. The volatility of its Chinese analog, Nio, has even surpassed Bitcoin’s! By all indicators these EV companies are massively overvalued.

But P/E ratios and volatility shouldnt be taken solely as indicators of whether a stock is overvalued.  Critics have argued that electric vehicles are no longer grounded in fundamentals. 

This is a criticism similar to the ones laid against Bitcoin in 2017.  At the time investors saw the potential of the asset to gain multiple times its value.  But naysayers such as Warren Buff rejected Bitcoin as nothing more than ‘rat poison.’ A few years later it seems as if Buffet has been proved wrong. Major Wall Street Investors are pouring into Bitcoin, seeing it as a compelling safe haven asset like Gold.

 P/E ratios reflect consumer confidence in the earnings potential of a company.  Investors in Tesla truly believe that electric vehicles will become the mode of transportation in the future. P/E ratio don’t reflect the current earnings of the car company but what investors imagine will be the earnings of the company at some point in the future.  We’ll have to wait and see if that vision indeed becomes a reality.

pros-and-cons-of-algae-biofuel

Amid rising concern for the environmental impact of fossil fuels, the pressure is on to find an alternative fuel source. A surprising contender? Algae. The seemingly unassuming green stuff that you find on top of a pond actually has a lot of potential as a biofuel to solve our global problems. However there are also environmental and economic drawbacks to adopting algae biofuel, and all the pros and cons will need to be thoroughly assessed before declaring it a viable global fuel source.

Pros of Algae Biofuel

Renewable Resource

Fossil fuels (such as coal, natural gas, and petroleum) take millions of years to form and as such are considered non-renewable sources of fuel. Algae on the other hand is a very rapidly growing resource and the subsequent biofuel that can be produced with its oil is completely renewable – some algae variations are able to double their biomass in less than a day!

Carbon Dioxide Neutral

Algae biofuel is carbon neutral – although carbon dioxide is released when the fuel is burned, it’s the same amount that the algae absorbed to grow. In other words, its net impact in regards to emissions is the same as if it was never grown. For this reason, algae is estimated to have a greenhouse gas footprint that is 93% smaller than conventional petroleum-based diesel.

Efficient Land Use

Algae doesn’t need soil or freshwater to grow, nor is it restricted to certain seasons – it can exist in just about any environment or climate, as long as it has enough sunlight. Algae ponds and cultivation facilities are often located close to existing wastewater and pollution sources, feeding off of the otherwise unusable nitrates, phosphates and pollutants that are found in the waste. 

Direct Petroleum Substitute

Some algae types can be refined with similar methods to those used for petroleum products (such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel), meaning the biofuel can act as a drop-in replacement for fuels already in circulation. In theory, it could start fueling our cars, machines, and jets from tomorrow, without any need to change or replace them.

Cons of Algae Biofuel

Water Intensive

Significant amounts of water are needed for optimum algae growth, much more than for other biofuel sources – to produce just one liter of the biodiesel requires at least 3.15 liters of water. It also has to be grown under controlled temperature conditions, which results in water loss through evaporation.

High Fertilizer Use

To produce the large amounts of algae needed to fuel the world requires lots of fertilizer – you’d need 15% of all the fertilizer produced in a year to meet the needs of just 5% of the US transportation market. There are several environmental issues that come with excessive fertilizer use which affect the net impact of algae biofuels; water pollution from run-off, production-related carbon emissions, and dependency on an increasingly scarce resource, phosphorus.

High Cost

Research and development of algae as a fuel source is still fairly new, so the cost to produce it is currently far more than fossil fuel-based alternatives. In 2009, introductory prices were around the $33 per gallon mark – realistically if it wants to compete with oil, algae biofuel will need to cost less than $3 per gallon. The field has since seen technological developments which have improved efficiencies and brought costs down but these processes are yet to be perfected. 

Market Opportunity

So what does the future of the algal biofuel industry look like? According to a new report, the global market size is expected to reach USD $10.73 billion by 2025, an enormous opportunity also identified by Andrew Wills, Director of Finance for Manta Biofuel. Andrew told Greenly.co that “the global crude oil market is nearly $2 trillion. Within that, our beachhead market is heating oil, which represents a $10 billion opportunity”. 

Increasingly scarce fossil fuels and greater awareness about the importance of sustaining our natural environment are at the heart of this projected industry growth, as well as big pushes in R&D by startups, oil and gas majors, and university-led research consortiums. However limitations are to be expected. Regarding barriers to adoption, Wills says, “I think the main risk is adoption by refineries. Because a refinery is so complex and represents a large capital investment, operators are highly risk averse.

Fortunately, we have the ability to go directly to the end user in both the heating oil and heavy oil markets. This allows us to build a multi-billion dollar business while we work with entrenched players and educate them on the benefits of our product. Other than that, we have validated that our system works, and we now just need to scale, which requires execution and a bit of capital”. The market is expected to oversee regional partnerships and collaborations to facilitate the production and technology exchange necessary for this scaling up.

So will we be driving algae-fueled cars in the future? It’s certainly possible, but more research and funding will be needed before we can power our vehicles with pond scum. 

nio-battery-as-a-service

On August 20, 2020 Nio revealed its battery as a service. It is starting this service out free of charge. 

A battery swapping service will benefit end consumers.  The quality of batteries only keeps improving. This makes the range cards can travel longer than ever before.  Rather than upgrade their car, Nio drivers can now go to one of China’s over 180 battery swapping stations. 

The battery, a 100 kWh system is a huge improvement on the 70 kWh and 84 kWh batteries release in 2018 and 2020. Nio now offers better batteries than Tesla. While Tesla is working on a 110 kWh battery pack, Model 3 currency runs on batteries with 82 kWH. Nio Vehicles will now have a maximum driving range of 615 kilometers. 

 The Battery as a Service announcement boosted Nio’s stock which has been on a tear this year up over 10 times since the beginning of the year. 

Nio delivered close to 22,000 cars last year, a 81$ increase year over year.  With its top notch features, it is likely that Nio’s deliveries can soon justify its $60 market cap which is nearly double Ford.